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India is committed to address “all humanitarian matters, including those pertaining to prisoners” with Pakistan, the Ministry of External Affairs (MEA) said in a statement after New Delhi and Islamabad exchanged lists of prisoners in accordance with the 2008 Agreement on Consular Access, under which the exchange takes place every year on January 1 and July 1.
The Government has called for early release and repatriation of civilian prisoners, missing Indian defence personnel, and fishermen along with their boats, from Pakistan’s custody,” a press note released by the MEA said.
India also asked to fast track the release and repatriation of 631 Indian fishermen and two Indian civilian prisoners “who have completed their sentence and whose nationality has been confirmed and conveyed to Pakistan.
The MEA said that the Indian side has sought “immediate” consular access to the “remaining 30 fishermen and 22 civilian prisoners in Pakistan’s custody, who are believed to be Indian”.
Delhi has shared lists of 339 Pakistani civilian prisoners and 95 Pakistani fishermen who are in India’s custody. Pakistan was also asked to confirm the “nationality status” of 71 Pakistani prisoners, including fishermen, whose repatriation is pending as Islamabad has not yet confirmed their citizenship status.
The two sides also exchanged lists of their nuclear facilities on Sunday as part of a 1988 pact that is aimed at preventing attacks targeting nuclear installations in each other’s territory.
Bhima-Koregaon battle anniversary passes peacefully amid heavy security with lakhs in attendance(Page no. 1)
(GS Paper 1, History)
The 205th anniversary of the Bhima-Koregaon battle passed without incident as lakhs of Ambedkarites from across Maharashtra and the country congregated near the Ranstambh (victory pillar) in Perne village in Pune district on Sunday under heavy security cover.
Crowds have been steadily milling in Bhima-Koregaon since Saturday evening to pay floral tributes to the bravery of the Mahar soldiers who fought against the Peshwa forces in the 1818 battle.
Keeping an ever-vigilant eye to avoid any recrudescence of the violence during the bicentenary celebrations of the battle in 2018, the Pune Rural Police strictly monitored social media, deleting over 100 posts found to contain provocative content with the possible aim of rupturing peace.
The ‘Jaystambh’ is obelisk in Bhima-Koregaon village commemorates the British East India Company soldiers who fell in a battle on January 1, 1818, where the British, with just 834 infantrymen — about 500 of them from the Mahar community — and 12 officers defeated the 28,000-strong army of Peshwa Bajirao II. It was one of the last battles of the Third Anglo-Maratha War, which ended the Peshwa domination.
While the outcome of the Koregaon-Bhima battle was inconclusive, Babasaheb Ambedkar’s visit to the spot on January 1, 1927, revitalised its memory for the Dalit community, making it a rallying point and an assertion of pride.
Editorial
India’s dilemmas in an Asian century (Page no. 6)
(GS Paper 2, International Relation)
If 2022 was a momentous year for India and the rest of the world, 2023 is likely to further sharpen the geopolitical fault lines set in motion by the previous year. Amidst all the tectonic shifts around us, what appears to be a certainty is the emergence of an Asia-centric century.
The geopolitical and economic rise of Asia coincides with several regional and global developments which have the potential to undermine the stability and prosperity India had hoped an Asian century would bring.
The withdrawal of the U.S. from much of continental Asia and the aggressive rise of China and the Ukraine war appear to have ended the great power concert in Asia, or what appeared as one for some time.
Today, two major powers — Russia and China — are trying, though in varying degrees, to undermine the global balance of power, with several regional powers such as Iran, Turkey and Saudi Arabia in tow. Asia may be headed towards more global prominence, but instability will be its possessive partner.
For India, the rise of the Asian century might turn out to be too steeped in harsh realpolitik for its comfort. A deeply status quoist, risk-averse New Delhi is inherently opposed to playing high-risk games of chicken that cross its own self-defined red lines. New Delhi might speak like a revisionist power, but don’t go by what it says; go by what it does.
There can be no meaningful Asian century in a unipolar world. One alternative to a unipolar world is a multipolar world with Russia, China, Japan, India and other, smaller powers asserting themselves on the global stage.
The other alternative is a China-dominated Asia. Herein lies the challenge for India. It is clear that a China-dominated Asia won’t serve India’s geopolitical interests.
A multipolar world/Asia with new and shifting alliances; formal, informal, secret, open and in-between pacts; and competing coalitions vying for dominance will invariably take away from the relative ‘stability’ of the current world order where the power of the U.S. is on the decline and that of China is (still) on the rise.
More so, while multipolarity is desirable in theory, what kind of multipolarity are we seeing the emergence of? For India, multipolarity is one premised on the rule of law or peaceful coexistence.
Opinion
India-China: between pre-1962 and now(Page no. 7)
(GS Paper 2, International Relation)
The clash between Indian troops and the Chinese PLA at Galwan in 2020 and the recent altercation between troops at Yangtse in Arunachal Pradesh have served to highlight the lingering boundary dispute as well as the complex Line of Actual Control (LAC).
It is tempting to examine the parallels in India-China relations in the 1960s and the current situation along the LAC. Both situations concern the boundary question, although the focus in the 1950s was on the fundamental question of the “territorial dispute” involving the whole of Aksai Chin claimed by India and the whole of NEFA (now Arunachal Pradesh) claimed by China.
Today, however, with the Chinese firmly in occupation of Aksai Chin and India firm in guarding its territorial integrity in Arunachal Pradesh, the immediate issue has moved on to transgressions along the LAC.
The differences in the western sector (Ladakh) are no longer confined to Trig Heights in the Daulet Beg Oldie (DBO) area and Demchok in the south as was the case in earlier decades.
The Depsang Bulge, Galwan, Pangong Lake and Hot Springs are areas where China is seeking to press expedient claims. Since the Galwan incident, the two sides have disengaged at multiple friction points even as military and diplomatic talks continue to find a way out of the impasse at Depsang and Demchok.
In the middle (central sector), the Barahoti pasture north of Chamoli in Uttarakhand has been at the centre of the dispute for the past seven decades.
In the eastern sector (Arunachal Pradesh), the international boundary and the LAC are defined by the 1914 McMahon Line, based on the watershed principle.
Yet, China seeks to make inroads in the Tawang sector as well as other areas such as the Upper Subansiri region, and further, near the tri-junction with Myanmar.
Traditionally, China has enjoyed advantage in terms of terrain and logistics on the high plateau of Tibet. China has always projected a spurious interpretation of the LAC and shied away from clarifying its position through an exchange of large-scale maps following the one-off exchange of maps two decades ago concerning the middle sector.
Unlike in the past, India is rapidly building its border infrastructure. China has had a headstart in building its own, yet has the temerity to object to improved logistics on the Indian side, solely to keep intact the asymmetry.
Explainer
The danger of deepfakes(Page no. 8)
(GS Paper 3, Science and Tech)
Disinformation and hoaxes have evolved from mere annoyance to warfare that can create social discord, increase polarisation, and in some cases, even influence the election outcome.
Nation-state actors with geopolitical aspirations, ideological believers, violent extremists, and economically motivated enterprises can manipulate social media narratives with easy and unprecedented reach and scale. The disinformation threat has a new tool in the form of deepfakes.
Deepfakes are digital media - video, audio, and images edited and manipulated using Artificial Intelligence. It is basically hyper-realistic digital falsification. Deepfakes are created to inflict harm on individuals and institutions.
Access to commodity cloud computing, public research AI algorithms, and abundant data and availability of vast media have created a perfect storm to democratise the creation and manipulation of media. This synthetic media content is referred to as deepfakes.
Artificial Intelligence (AI)-Generated Synthetic media or deepfakes have clear benefits in certain areas, such as accessibility, education, film production, criminal forensics, and artistic expression.
However, as access to synthetic media technology increases, so does the risk of exploitation. Deepfakes can be used to damage reputation, fabricate evidence, defraud the public, and undermine trust in democratic institutions. All this can be achieved with fewer resources, with scale and speed, and even micro-targeted to galvanise support.
The first case of malicious use of deepfake was detected in pornography. According to a sensity.ai, 96% of deepfakes are pornographic videos, with over 135 million views on pornographic websites alone.
Deepfake pornography exclusively targets women. Pornographic deepfakes can threaten, intimidate, and inflict psychological harm. It reduces women to sexual objects causing emotional distress, and in some cases, lead to financial loss and collateral consequences like job loss.
Deepfake can depict a person as indulging in antisocial behaviors and saying vile things that they never did. Even if the victim could debunk the fake via alibi or otherwise, that fix may come too late to remedy the initial harm.
Has India tided over the problem of bad loans?(Page no. 8)
(GS Paper 3, Economy)
In December 2022, Finance Minister Nirmala Sitharaman told Parliament that banks had written off bad loans worth ₹10,09,511 crore during the last five financial years.
A National Asset Reconstruction Company Ltd. (NARCL) was announced in the Union Budget for 2021-2022 to resolve stressed loans amounting to about ₹2 lakh crore in phases.
A bad loan is that which has not been ‘serviced’ for a certain period. Servicing a loan is paying back the interest and a small part of the principal — depending on the agreement between bank and borrower — to begin with so that over time, you pay back the principal as well as the interest accrued in the duration.
In 2009, the RBI brought out norms that set out categories of NPAs and what banks must do as these bad loans aged. Bad loans are a problem, for, with time, there is less and less certainty that the loan would be paid back in full.
The RBI’s master circular in 2009 started off the journey on NPA recognition. It states that if an asset has been ‘doubtful’ for a certain period, the value of that asset must be provided for in parts, as the asset ages. There was a revision in October 2021 which made recognition far more stringent.
Interestingly, even if the asset is standard and there is no problem with it, banks are expected to make provisions depending on the risk element for that sector.
Like home loans with teaser rates are at greater risk than those that aren’t. Hence provisions have to be made for such loans.In the last five years, how much have banks had to mark as bad loans.
Minister of State for Finance Bhagwat Karad told the Rajya Sabha in December that loans written off by scheduled commercial banks (SCBs) during the last five financial years totalled ₹10.1 lakh crore.
Significantly, only ₹1.32 lakh crore has been recovered. As a percentage of write-offs, this comes to only about 13%. One explanation is that if an NPA is fully recognised in a particular year, even the fastest of legal processes may not resolve for full repayment.
News
India and Austria to sign migration and mobility agreement, shore up ties (Page no. 10)
(GS Paper 2, International Relation)
Close on the heels of similar mobility agreements with France, United Kingdom, Germany and Finland, India will sign a “Comprehensive Migration and Mobility Partnership Agreement” (MMPA) with Austria on Monday during External Affairs Minister S. Jaishankar’s visit to Vienna.
While India has been keen to finalise these agreements with European countries as a stepping stone to resolving issues over the long-pending India-European Union (EU) Free Trade Agreement and facilitating Indian professionals working in these countries, the European countries also see them as a way to curb illegal immigration from India.
This is a much-needed agreement, especially in view of the sharp increase in illegal migration Austria was confronted with last year, including over 15,000 illegal migrants from India with practically no chance of asylum.
The agreement is now a useful tool to combat illegal migration together, as it enables the swift return of illegal migrants.
In addition, the agreement will regulate multiple entry visas for professionals and student exchange programmes, and will be reviewed regularly by a Joint Working Group (JWG).
Mr. Jaishankar who is on a trip to Cyprus and Austria, attended the famous “New Year’s Concert” of the Vienna Philharmonic Orchestra together with Mr. Schallenberg on Sunday, and the two Ministers will meet again on Monday for bilateral talks.
They also held a combined meeting with Foreign Ministers of Czech and Slovakia, under the “Slavkov” trilateral format for the Central European countries.
On the agenda for bilateral and multilateral talks, the Austrian Foreign Minister’s Spokesperson said, is India’s Presidency of the G-20, as well as “the position of India on the Russian war of aggression in Ukraine and its global negative ramifications”. During a visit to Delhi in March, Mr. Schallenberg, one of a number of U.S. and European senior officials who tried to change the Modi government’s position on Russian war in Ukraine, the war in Europe would have repercussions for the whole world, and no country could “stay at its sidelines.
This is the first trip to Austria by an Indian Foreign Minister in 27 years, the Ministry of External Affairs said in a statement last week, indicating the importance of the visit.
Mr. Jaishankar also met with the Austrian Chancellor Karl Nehammer on Sunday, and will meet the Director General of the Vienna-based International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) Rafael Grossi.