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India’s fiscal deficit may breach the 5.9% of GDP target for this year and could hit 6%, though tax collections have been buoyant and may offset a wide shortfall in disinvestment outcomes, due to the likelihood of revenue spending exceeding the Budget Estimate by about ₹2 lakh crore, India Ratings and Research said.
The Centre has recently secured parliamentary approval for the first supplementary demand for grants this year, involving an additional cash outgo of ₹53,378 crore, lifting its total spending commitment for 2023-24 to ₹45.6 lakh crore, including about ₹35.6 lakh crore of revenue expenditure and ₹10.1 lakh crore of capital expenditure.
Editorial
The outlook for 2024, for the world and India (Page no. 6)
(GS Paper 2, International Relation)
What is apparent as 2024 dawns is that global risks and uncertainties are only likely to increase, reminding us that we are living in a time of great peril.
The new year can be expected to be even less safe and uncertain than the previous two years. An unfortunate aspect is that the existing order is being challenged as much by architects of the ‘rules based international order’, as it is by persons who declare it outdated.
Again, existing geostrategic contradictions are likely to intensify. The war in Ukraine, though stalemated at present, could well become highly combustible as 2024 progresses.
A Biden victory in the United States presidential election may well depend on the way the war in Ukraine turns, as a decisive defeat for Putin’s Russia, (even though this appears unlikely at present), would boost his chances. Ukraine’s Zelensky, conscious of the sagging support for Ukraine in Europe and elsewhere, could well attempt ‘a last throw of the dice’, and resort to desperate measures.
Mr. Putin, for his part, may be tempted to go to extremes (not excluding resort to sub-optimal nuclear weapons) to secure a victory in Ukraine.
Opinion
Development led by corporates, not women (Page no. 7)
(GS Paper 3, Economy)
The G20 Summit in Delhi adopted a Declaration which resolved to set up a “working group on the empowerment of women.”
Given the continuing discrimination against women and girls, this is welcome. But by and large, “working groups” formed in the past have not been implemented.
For example, the Sustainable Development Goals have specific targets to address gender gaps. However, as the Declaration itself admits, “At the midway point to 2030, the global progress on SDGs is off-track with only 12% of the targets on track.
The Gender Equality section says, “We encourage women-led development and remain committed to enhancing women’s full, equal, effective, and meaningful participation as decision makers for addressing global challenges inclusively and in contributing as active participants in all spheres of society, across all sectors and at all levels of the economy.
Text & Context
Are graduates facing unemployment? (Page no. 8)
(GS Paper 3, Economy)
In 1932, the famous engineer and statesman M Visvesvaraya pointed to the high prevalence of unemployment amongst the educated, pointing out that the educated men of this country are suffering most from lack of employment.
Ninety years later, the actions of those involved in the Parliament breach have brought the question of youth unemployment to the fore once more.
While Rahul Gandhi holds the present government responsible for rising youth unemployment, official data seems to indicate the opposite.
The unemployment rate, which hit a high of 6.1% in 2017-18, has reduced to 3.2% in 2022-23, according to the latest data from the Periodic Labour Force Survey (PLFS).
Even though unemployment rates are low and have been falling since 2017-18, there exist significant disparities in the experience of unemployment.
The highest rates of unemployment are faced by those who should face bright prospects in a growing economy: young highly educated workers. This is not a problem that has arisen recently but seems to be a structural feature of the Indian economy.
The economy faces problems in generating employment for young graduates, with the situation exacerbating in recent years.
Do shortened TB treatment plans offer the solution for India’s TB burden? (Page no. 9)
(GS Paper 2, Health)
Tuberculosis is a dreadful disease with a high mortality and has consistently been a global health concern. India accounts for around 27% of TB cases worldwide – which is the world’s highest country-wise TB burden – thanks in part to its population of 1.3 billion.
In the last decade, the National Tuberculosis Elimination Programme (NTEP), along with the private sector, has successfully found and treated 17.14 million people with TB, including an estimated 1.4 million children.
However, the COVID-19 pandemic adversely affected TB care and has threatened to reverse the gains made in reducing India’s burden. Additionally, the growing problem of drug-resistant TB also threatens the progress we have made in basic disease management.
TB is curable but treatment is challenging. For drug-sensitive TB, a patient must take the medication for six months, and this is a long period for most people. The treatment also includes three or four drugs that can have side effects and are difficult to swallow at times.
News
India, Russia ink ‘key’ pacts related to Kudankulam nuclear power plant (Page no. 10)
(GS Paper 3, Science and Technology)
In a major boost to their time-tested partnership, India and Russia on Tuesday signed some “very important” agreements related to the construction of the future power-generating units of the Kudankulam nuclear power plant.
External Affairs Minister S. Jaishankar, who is on a five-day visit to Russia, made the announcement after his “comprehensive and productive” meeting with Deputy Prime Minister Denis Manturov on the bilateral economic cooperation during which they witnessed signing of agreements on nuclear power and in areas of medicines, pharmaceutical substances and medical devices.
“Today, in my presence and that of Deputy Prime Minister Manturov, we signed some very important agreements pertaining to the future units of the Kudankulam nuclear project,” he said addressing the Indian diaspora here.
ICMR initiates steps for non-invasive testing method to tackle anaemia (Page no. 12)
(GS Paper 2, Health)
While accepting that anaemia continues to be a major public health problem in India despite the comprehensive Anaemia-mukt Bharat (AMB) programme, the Indian Council of Medical Research (ICMR), Delhi, has now invited Expression of Interest (EoI) from the eligible organisations, companies and start-ups manufacturing non-invasive haemoglobinometer useful in effective screening of anaemia.
While companies are to respond byJanuary 5, the ICMR noted that testing and treatment of anaemia, using digital methods and point-of-care treatment, with a special focus on pregnant women and on school-going adolescents, is one of the key AMB strategic interventions.
The test and treat strategy, for its effective implementation, requires a simple, easy-to-use non- invasive haemoglobinometer which will be acceptable to all, especially young children.
Over the past few years, several ‘Make in India’ non-invasive haemoglobinometer devices have become available.
However, these devices need to be validated to establish the accuracy, bias, and precision of the non-invasive point-of-care methods before their use can be recommended in the programme,” it explained.
Business
Narrowing trade deficit cut India’s CAD to 1% of GDP in Q2 (Page no. 13)
(GS Paper 3, Economy)
India’s current account deficit (CAD) declined to $8.3 billion, which is 1% of the country’s GDP in the second quarter of FY24 (July 2023 -September 2023) owing to a “narrowing of merchandise trade deficit” according to the RBI’s latest data.
Q2 deficit is lower than $9.2 billion (1.1% of GDP) in Q1 (April 2023 - June 2023) and $30.9 billion (3.8% of GDP) a year earlier.
Underlying the lower CAD on a year-on-year (y-o-y) basis in Q2 FY24 was the narrowing of merchandise trade deficit to $61 billion from $78.3 billion in Q2 FY23.
As per data, services exports grew by 4.2% on a y-o-y basis on the back of rising exports of software, business and travel services. Net services receipts increased both sequentially and on a y-o-y basis.
Net outgo on the primary income account, mainly reflecting payments of investment income, increased to $12.2 billion up from $11.8 billion a year earlier.
Renewable energy investments to surge 83% to $16.5 billion in 2024 (Page no. 13)
(GS Paper 3, Environment)
India will witness more than 83% increase in investments in renewable energy (RE) projects to about $16.5 billion in 2024 as the country focuses on energy transition to reduce carbon emissions.
This is in line with India’s ambitious target of having 500 GW of renewable energy by 2030 and its resolve to reduce overall power generation capacity from fossil fuels to less than 50%. India has committed a net zero emission target by 2070.
However, Union Power and New & Renewable Energy Minister R. K. Singh had said on many occasions that as much as 65% power generation capacity would be from non-fossil fuels by 2030 and that it would be higher than the set target of 50%.
World
Sweden’s NATO bid gets Turkiye’s first nod (Page no. 14)
(GS Paper 2, International Relation)
A key committee in the Turkish parliament gave the greenlight for Sweden’s NATO membership, clearing another hurdle in the Nordic country’s accession process in the wake of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine last year.
The Turkish parliament’s foreign affairs committee approved Sweden’s NATO membership 19 months after it submitted the plan.
The move paves the way for a vote by the full Parliament, where President Recep Tayyip Erdogan’s alliance has a majority. It was not immediately clear when it would be.
Science
What incentives do scientists have to study rare diseases? (Page no. 18)
(GS Paper 2, Health)
Founded by the millennial world’s most famous billionaires, the Breakthrough Prizes may not yet rival the Nobel Prizes in prestige, but the so-called “Oscars of Science” do offer three-times as much prize money.
The 2024 prizes in the Life Sciences category recognised groundbreaking research set to change the lives of those suffering from three debilitating diseases: Parkinson’s disease, cystic fibrosis, and cancer.
These discoveries, along with the contexts and controversies surrounding them, exemplify the state of cutting-edge medical biology today.
There are about 7,000 known rare diseases, affecting around 8% of the world’s population” and “75% of rare disease patients are children,” according to the Ministry of Health and Family Welfare. Despite these sobering numbers, there is little research under way on rare diseases.