Why Delhi Must Reach Out to Jakarta (GS Paper 2, IR)
Introduction:
- On October 20, 2024, Indonesia saw a pivotal political shift as Prabowo Subianto succeeded Joko Widodo as president, marking a new chapter in the country’s political landscape.
- The change in leadership brings to the forefront a crucial opportunity for India to engage more deeply with its maritime neighbor, Indonesia.
- While historical ties between the two nations have been significant, India’s diplomatic outreach to Indonesia has often remained underdeveloped.
- As President Prabowo embarks on his tenure, India must seize this moment to strengthen its relationship with Indonesia, particularly in the face of growing geopolitical challenges in the Indo-Pacific region.
Why is it Crucial for India to Approach the New Indonesian Administration?
Geopolitical Significance of Indonesia:
- Indonesia, the world’s largest archipelago and a key maritime nation, holds a strategic position in the Indo-Pacific.
- The country has long been wary of China’s growing influence, especially in the South China Sea. President Prabowo's decision to visit China first, despite a recent intrusion by a Chinese coast guard vessel into Indonesian waters, underscores Indonesia’s delicate balancing act in its foreign policy. Prabowo’s relations with the US have been strained due to his controversial human rights record, further complicating the regional diplomatic landscape.
- Given these dynamics, India has a unique opportunity to engage with Indonesia, offering an alternative to Chinese influence while promoting a shared vision of a free and open Indo-Pacific. India's growing geopolitical presence, coupled with shared concerns over China's assertiveness, makes it an important partner for Indonesia.
China’s Growing Influence:
- Despite Indonesia’s reservations about China's business practices and geopolitical assertiveness, President Prabowo's visit to China signals the growing entanglement between Jakarta and Beijing.
- India must act quickly to prevent Indonesia from aligning too closely with the Sinosphere, as this would alter the balance of power in the region.
- By engaging proactively with Jakarta, India can build a stronger strategic partnership with Indonesia, ensuring that it remains a counterbalance to Chinese dominance in Southeast Asia.
Indonesia's Leadership and Strategic Military Ties:
- Prabowo’s family legacy and his own military background provide him with significant influence over Indonesia's defense and foreign policy.
- As the former son-in-law of former President Suharto, Prabowo has deep ties to Indonesia’s military establishment and a reputation for strong nationalism.
- His rise to power also means that Indonesia may continue to prioritize defense and strategic partnerships with countries like India that share concerns over regional security, including the security of sea lanes, counter-terrorism, and military modernization.
- India must capitalize on this by strengthening defense and strategic collaborations, including joint military exercises, technology sharing, and naval cooperation in the Indo-Pacific.
The Intertwined History of India and Indonesia
The historical, cultural, and political links between India and Indonesia form a solid foundation for future cooperation:
Bandung Conference (1955):
- India and Indonesia were both pivotal in the formation of the Non-Aligned Movement (NAM) during the Bandung Conference, which laid the groundwork for diplomatic cooperation between the two nations.
- Both countries shared anti-colonial sentiments, and Indonesia, under President Sukarno, was one of the key architects of NAM.
Indonesia’s Struggles for Independence:
- India supported Indonesia’s independence from Dutch colonial rule, with the US backing Sukarno’s leadership and India actively participating in diplomatic efforts to facilitate the final Dutch withdrawal.
- These historical bonds laid the foundation for Indo-Indonesian cooperation during the Cold War and beyond.
Late 20th Century Dynamics:
- Relations between India and Indonesia faced setbacks during Suharto's authoritarian regime, particularly after India’s tilt towards the USSR in the 1970s.
- However, post-Suharto presidents, especially Abdurrahman Wahid and Megawati Sukarnoputri, recognized the value of strengthening ties with India, particularly in light of shared maritime security concerns and disputes with China.
- Under President Joko Widodo, the two nations strengthened their strategic relationship, including collaborations on defense and maritime security.
Prabowo’s Rise:
- Prabowo’s political comeback, following a period of exile after his fall from grace in the late 1990s, also mirrored Indonesia’s transformation from an authoritarian regime to a democracy.
- As defense minister under Jokowi, Prabowo began to forge stronger ties with India, particularly in the defense sector, highlighting the potential for further military cooperation under his presidency.
Economic Significance of Indonesia for India
Indonesia plays a crucial economic role in Southeast Asia and holds substantial economic opportunities for India:
Trade and Investment:
- Indonesia is a major exporter of critical commodities such as thermal coal, palm oil, nickel (used in electric vehicle batteries), and rubber.
- These resources are vital for India's expanding manufacturing sector, especially in renewable energy and electric vehicles.
- Strengthening trade ties with Indonesia will help diversify India's energy sources and secure essential raw materials for its industries.
Maritime and Strategic Collaboration:
- Given Indonesia’s strategic location in the Indo-Pacific, enhancing cooperation on maritime security and logistics could benefit both nations.
- Indonesia’s expertise in maritime issues, combined with India’s naval capabilities, could lead to closer collaboration on regional security matters, such as combating piracy, securing sea lanes, and addressing regional territorial disputes.
Shared Economic Interests:
- Indonesia and India share common interests in enhancing regional trade and fostering deeper economic integration in Asia.
- As India seeks to reduce its dependence on China, Indonesia presents an opportunity for India to diversify its supply chains and build stronger economic ties in Southeast Asia.
Service Sector Cooperation:
- Indonesia’s growing economy presents opportunities for Indian service professionals, including in sectors like IT, healthcare, and education.
- India can assist Indonesia in reducing business costs and improving operational efficiencies, particularly in the context of digital transformation and infrastructure development.
Deep Civilizational and Cultural Links
Despite modern geopolitical challenges, India and Indonesia share deep cultural and civilizational ties. These links, rooted in historical exchanges, can serve as a foundation for enhanced bilateral cooperation:
Cultural Diplomacy:
- India and Indonesia have long shared a deep cultural connection, particularly through Hinduism, Buddhism, and shared historical experiences.
- For example, the Arjuna Wijaya statue in Jakarta, commissioned by Suharto, is a symbol of these ties.
- The Indian diaspora in Indonesia also plays a significant role in maintaining cultural exchanges between the two nations.
Tourism and People-to-People Ties:
- Strengthening people-to-people ties through cultural exchanges, tourism, and academic collaboration can further bolster the relationship.
- The Indian community in Indonesia, while relatively small, remains an important link for bilateral relations, and India can continue to promote greater cultural diplomacy to deepen mutual understanding.
Conclusion: A Call for Proactive Engagement
- India must act swiftly to build a stronger relationship with Indonesia under President Prabowo’s leadership.
- With Indonesia’s strategic position in the Indo-Pacific, economic potential, and shared concerns about China’s growing influence, it is in India’s best interest to engage Indonesia more deeply.
- By leveraging its historical, cultural, and economic strengths, India can foster a more robust partnership with Indonesia that will benefit both nations and contribute to a more stable, prosperous, and secure region.
