Trump 2.0 and the World (GS Paper 2, IR)
Context
- With Donald Trump set to return to the White House, the world is preparing for another term marked by significant shifts in both U.S. domestic policy and its role in global geopolitics.
- While the U.S. economy and political landscape have changed since his first term, many of the foundational principles that defined Trump's foreign and domestic policies are expected to resurface, albeit with potential modifications to address new global dynamics.
Trump’s Foreign, Economic, and Environmental Policies: Key Features
America First
- Trump’s signature "America First" doctrine will likely dominate his second term.
- This policy focuses on prioritizing U.S. national interests in trade, security, and diplomacy.
- He has consistently pushed for a more transactional approach to foreign relations, emphasizing the need for the U.S. to benefit directly from its international engagements.
- The implications of this are clear: pressure on allies to carry more of the burden in defense costs, renegotiation of trade deals, and a general shift away from multilateralism.
Tariffs and Trade Wars
- Trump’s economic strategy during his first term involved imposing tariffs on goods from China, Europe, and even American allies like Canada and Mexico.
- These tariffs were meant to protect U.S. industries but also sparked trade wars that affected global trade relations.
- In a second term, Trump is likely to increase tariffs further, with a 60% tariff on imports from China and possibly additional tariffs on goods from other nations.
- This could lead to retaliatory measures from China, Europe, and others, disrupting global supply chains and trade dynamics.
Alliances and Partnerships
- Trump’s approach to alliances has been skeptical, particularly towards multilateral institutions like NATO and the United Nations.
- He has often questioned the effectiveness and fairness of these organizations, demanding that U.S. allies contribute more to collective defense efforts.
- In a second term, transatlantic relations might become more strained, as Trump’s transactional approach could clash with traditional alliance structures, particularly in Europe.
Environmental Scepticism
- Trump has consistently downplayed the importance of environmental policies, and it’s likely that his second term will see a return to the policies of deregulation.
- This could mean walking away from climate agreements like the Paris Accord once again and a rollback of initiatives such as the Inflation Reduction Act passed under Biden, which focused on climate change and clean energy investments.
Possible Impacts of Trump 2.0 on India
India-US Relations
- India is likely to be less affected than many other U.S. allies by Trump’s foreign policy shifts.
- Trump’s favorable stance toward India, especially regarding economic nationalism and shared views on countering China, may help solidify the relationship.
- Prime Minister Modi's policies, which focus on self-reliance (Atmanirbhar Bharat) and geostrategic cooperation in the Indo-Pacific, align well with Trump’s priorities, particularly in the context of China's growing assertiveness.
Trade
- While India may face pressure on trade issues, especially with Trump’s tariff policies, areas of cooperation remain.
- For example, both countries are likely to find common ground in sectors where they can counter China’s influence, such as technology, defense, and energy.
- However, Trump’s high tariffs could hurt Indian exports to the U.S., and India would need to navigate these challenges carefully to maintain a robust economic relationship.
Global Ramifications of Trump’s Approach
Israel
- Under Trump, U.S. support for Israel is likely to remain unwavering.
- The U.S. will continue to provide advanced weaponry and a protective shield for Israel in any conflicts, including its ongoing tensions with Palestinians and other regional actors.
- Trump’s support for Israel could further entrench U.S.-Israel ties, but it may also increase regional tensions in the Middle East, particularly with countries like Iran.
Iran
- Trump’s stance toward Iran has been aggressive, characterized by economic sanctions and a hardline approach.
- In his second term, we can expect even tougher sanctions and possibly covert actions against Iranian targets.
- Trump’s antipathy toward Iran remains a cornerstone of his foreign policy, though he is unlikely to risk an all-out war. Instead, his approach will likely focus on maximizing pressure while avoiding direct military conflict.
Europe
- Europeans are likely to be deeply apprehensive about Trump’s return.
- The prospect of U.S. abandonment of Ukraine in its conflict with Russia would leave Europe in a vulnerable position.
- Trump may even try to broker a deal with Russia, which could involve territorial concessions from Ukraine.
- Additionally, his disdain for NATO could undermine European security, and his imposition of high tariffs on European imports would exacerbate the economic challenges faced by the EU.
Indo-Pacific
The Indo-Pacific region is likely to fare better under Trump’s policies. With China as the primary adversary, the U.S. will continue to prioritize efforts to contain China’s influence in the region. In this context, the Quad—comprising the U.S., India, Japan, and Australia—will become even more critical. Trump’s strategic alignment with India, coupled with India’s growing role in the region, may enhance the Quad’s influence and bolster efforts to maintain a free and open Indo-Pacific.
India’s Strategic Position in the New U.S. Order
- India is in a unique strategic position that allows it to navigate potential strains in its relationship with the U.S. more effectively than many other countries.
- India’s flexible relationship with the U.S. allows it to pursue its interests without the constraints of formal defense treaties.
- This flexibility enables India to adapt to shifting U.S. policies without necessarily being pulled into conflicts that may not align with its own interests.
Alignment with U.S. Indo-Pacific Strategy
- India and the U.S. share a common goal: countering China.
- This alignment strengthens their partnership, especially in the Indo-Pacific, and will likely see deeper collaboration in areas such as trade, technology, defense, and regional security.
Resilience Against Potential Strains
- While India may face challenges from Trump’s trade policies, its growing strategic importance in the Indo-Pacific will likely outweigh any economic disagreements.
- Shared ideological interests between Trump and Modi on issues like economic nationalism and China will likely provide a foundation for a stable, if occasionally contentious, partnership.
Conclusion: Trump 2.0 and the World
- A second Trump presidency will likely see the U.S. adopting a more unilateral, transactional approach to its global relations, with a focus on protecting American interests at the expense of multilateralism.
- While this may strain relationships with traditional allies in Europe and Asia, India stands to gain from its strategic alignment with U.S. goals in the Indo-Pacific and its flexibility in navigating global challenges.
- However, the global ramifications of Trump’s policies, particularly regarding trade wars, Middle East instability, and environmental issues, will require careful management to avoid deepening divides and exacerbating existing tensions.
