Peacemaker’s Predicament: PM Modi’s Visit to Ukraine (GS Paper 2, IR)
Context
- Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi has made notable diplomatic strides by visiting both Moscow and Kyiv, underscoring his commitment to diplomacy in the Russia-Ukraine conflict.
- His visit to Ukraine is part of a broader effort to mediate and advocate for dialogue and peaceful resolution in the ongoing war.
India’s Position
Dichotomy in Diplomacy:
- Advocacy for Peace: PM Modi has consistently supported a peaceful resolution to the Russia-Ukraine war. India’s position has been to emphasize dialogue and diplomacy, as reflected in its participation in international forums like the Summit on Peace in Ukraine held in Burgenstock, Switzerland, in June 2024.
- Joint Statement: During his visit, PM Modi and Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy highlighted their commitment to international law, including the respect for territorial integrity and sovereignty as enshrined in the UN Charter. Modi reiterated India’s readiness to aid in achieving peace in Ukraine.
Challenges and Compulsions:
- Economic Interests: Despite its peace advocacy, India has significant economic ties with Russia, including the purchase of Russian oil. Ukraine and its Western allies have urged India to halt these transactions to exert economic pressure on Russia.
- Historical Context: India’s stance is influenced by its complex historical relationship with Russia and its current geopolitical interests. The past actions of Ukraine, including its military support to Pakistan and condemnation of India's nuclear tests, have left a shadow over bilateral relations.
Realistic Assessment
Strategic Balance:
- Western Expectations: The West and Ukraine seek more decisive actions from India, specifically stopping its purchase of Russian oil to pressure Russia economically. However, India’s foreign policy establishment must balance these expectations with its strategic interests and historical ties with Russia.
- Historical Parallel: A historical parallel can be drawn with the Soviet invasion of Afghanistan in 1979. India, although unhappy with the Soviet action, refrained from publicly criticizing Russia and faced challenges when it sought a role in the post-Soviet withdrawal.
Who Can and Will Ensure Peace?
Global Dynamics:
- Core Conflict: While the war in Ukraine has global implications, it fundamentally remains a European conflict involving major powers like the US, China, and Russia. The resolution of this conflict largely depends on these major players.
- Role of Other Powers: While countries like India are seen as potential contributors to peace efforts, their role is often limited to condemning Russia and applying economic pressure rather than being key mediators in the conflict.
Historical Ties with Ukraine
Past Challenges:
- Initial Relations: The relationship between India and Ukraine was strained from the outset. Ukraine’s military support to Pakistan and its condemnation of India’s nuclear tests in 1998 created early discord.
- Impact of Crimea: India’s cautious response to Russia’s annexation of Crimea further complicated bilateral ties and inhibited the growth of relations with Ukraine.
Way Forward:
- Moving Beyond the Past: It is crucial for India and Ukraine to focus on developing their relationship independently of external influences from the West or Russia. Addressing past grievances and fostering mutual cooperation can pave the way for a more productive bilateral engagement.
Conclusion
- Prime Minister Modi’s visit to Ukraine highlights India's commitment to diplomacy amid complex geopolitical realities.
- Balancing its historic ties with Russia and the evolving demands of the West and Ukraine, India faces a delicate task in navigating its role in the Russia-Ukraine conflict.
- For meaningful progress, both nations must work towards overcoming historical tensions and building a relationship based on mutual interests and respect.
