Double brake (GS Paper 2, Polity)
Introduction
- As Haryana gears up for a crucial single-phase Assembly election on October 1, 2024, the ruling Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) is vigorously preparing to counter a resurgent Congress.
- The election will decide all 90 seats in the Haryana Legislative Assembly and is expected to be a high-stakes contest, reflecting broader political dynamics at both the state and national levels.
Key Dynamics of the Haryana Assembly Election
Political Parties' Power Play:
- Jannayak Janta Party (JJP) and Aam Aadmi Party (AAP): The JJP, currently positioned as a significant third party, is working hard to retain its status in the state’s political landscape. Meanwhile, the AAP aims to emerge as a notable player in Haryana politics. Despite their efforts, the main focus remains on the sharp polarization between the BJP and Congress, which could shape the election results.
Anti-Incumbency Challenge:
- Double Anti-Incumbency: The BJP faces a dual challenge of anti-incumbency. Having been in power at both the state and national levels for the past decade, the party must address public dissatisfaction and perceptions of stagnation. This challenge is exacerbated by the general weariness of extended rule, which often impacts electoral performance.
Change in Leadership:
- Chief Minister Transition: In a strategic move, the BJP replaced Chief Minister Manohar Lal Khattar with Nayab Singh Saini in March 2024, ahead of the general elections. This change was aimed at rejuvenating the party's image and addressing growing concerns within the state.
Efforts to Pacify Interest Groups:
- Policy Reversals and New Schemes: Saini has focused on placating various interest groups by reversing several policies of his predecessor and introducing new initiatives. This includes increasing the expenditure limit for gram panchayats from ₹5 lakh to ₹21 lakh and organizing ‘Samadhan Shivirs’ to address public grievances.
- Job Security for Contractual Employees: Ensuring job security for 1.20 lakh contractual employees until retirement is another measure taken to stabilize support among the workforce.
Backward Classes and Other Support Initiatives:
- Income Criteria for Backward Classes: The annual income threshold for Other Backward Classes has been restored to ₹8 lakh, reversing the previous reduction to ₹6 lakh under Khattar’s administration.
- Agniveer Reservation: A 10% horizontal reservation for Agniveers in state government positions and an expanded minimum support price (MSP) regime for crops have been promised to garner support from these key voter segments.
Social Cleavages and BJP's Electoral Strategy:
- Jat-Non-Jat Divide: The BJP has historically benefited from the socio-political divide between Jats and non-Jats in Haryana. However, this alliance began to weaken with the farmers' agitation and controversies over the Agnipath scheme. The erosion of this multi-caste coalition poses a challenge for the BJP in retaining its voter base.
Congress's Focus:
- Campaign Priorities: Former Chief Minister Bhupinder Singh Hooda, leading the Congress campaign, is concentrating on addressing unemployment and the agricultural sector crisis. These issues resonate with a broad section of voters and are central to Congress’s strategy to reclaim power.
Conclusion
- The Haryana Assembly election represents a critical juncture for both the BJP and Congress.
- For the BJP, overcoming anti-incumbency and leveraging its policy reversals and new schemes will be key to securing a victory.
- On the other hand, Congress must navigate internal factionalism and capitalize on public discontent with unemployment and agricultural issues.
- The outcome of this election will have significant implications beyond Haryana.
- It will influence national politics, impacting both the BJP's strategy and Congress's efforts to regain its footing.
- The election’s result will not only shape Haryana’s political future but also reflect broader trends in Indian politics, providing insights into the electorate's sentiments and the effectiveness of party strategies at both state and national levels.
