Politics of the day (GS Paper 2, IR)
Introduction
- The recently held parliamentary elections threw some interesting results. The landslide victory of President Muizzu’s party is a concern for its neighbour India.
What was the significance of the election to President Muizzu?
- There was much at stake for Maldives President Mohamed Muizzu in the country’s parliamentary elections.
- First, it was a test of his popularity: Muizzu beat his predecessor Mohamed Solih in the competitive second-round poll in September last year.
- Muizzu has also faced some dissension from within the ruling alliance and party, especially from supporters of former President Abdulla Yameen, who was under house arrest on corruption charges.
- In addition, the fact that Muizzu’s People’s National Congress (PNC) did not have a majority in the Majles (or parliament) meant that the Opposition had considerable room to scupper the executive’s plans.
- The ruling party’s comprehensive win in the parliamentary elections, then the PNC has won 70 of 93 seats and its allies three more — has given it the “super majority” and political capital it desired moving forward.
The anti-India stance of President Muizzu
- There is little doubt that their anti-India stance is one of the pillars of the politics of Muizzu and the PNC.
- Muizzu had campaigned for the presidency on an “India Out” theme and in office, his government has asked for the minuscule number of Indian troops in the country to be withdrawn.
- He has scrapped the 2019 agreement under which India could carry out hydrographic surveys in Maldivian waters.
- Muizzu has also drawn Male closer to Beijing, including through his maiden visit soon after being elected president.
- China has received contracts for infrastructure projects.
- However, it is important to remember that the Maldives Majlis election is a domestic issue.
- It was fought on issues of corruption, the economy, housing, employment and shifting political alliances.
- The acquittal of Yameen, for example, likely helped firm up the ruling coalition.
India must not overreact
- The Indian government has done well not to overreact and to treat the attempts to distance Male from Delhi with soft hands.
- It hasn’t over reacted to provocative statements from members of Muizzu’s party in the recent past.
- A neighbour’s domestic politics are its own affair and as the preeminent regional power, India must take the churns in Maldivian polity in stride.
- If “India Out” is Muizzu’s calling card today, Solih was criticised often by his detractors for his perceived “India First” policy.
India should draw its red lines for Maldives
- Delhi must, draw red lines on matters that undermine its security and core interests.
- Just 70 nautical miles from the Indian coast, the Maldives is and will be an important part of India’s Neighbourhood First policy and the government’s SAGAR initiative.
- No matter the government of the day in Male, it must continue to engage with the country.
- That is the surest way of making bilateral ties “politics proof” in the long run.
Conclusion
- India must take changes in politics in Maldives in stride. India must not overreact, but communicate its red lines to Male. Delhi must continue to engage with Male despite its anti-India stance.
