India’s energy transition needs nuclear (GS Paper 3, Environment)
Context:
- Extreme weather events in different parts of the world have focused attention of the policymakers on climate change and energy transition.
- The mathematical modeling found for India, the nuclear-high scenario will be cheapest at $11.2 trillion, while the renewable-high scenario will be most expensive, at $15.5 trillion by 2070.
Focus of G20:
- India hosted G20 energy and climate ministers’ meetings in Goa and Chennai.
- G20 is a larger grouping than bilateral Sino-American discussions and therefore exposed to more pressures.
- Though the meetings produced outcome documents on areas of consensus, no agreement on the tripling of renewables, phasing down of fossil fuel, and bringing forward the peaking year to 2025, could be reached.
Lack of commitment by developed nations:
- Earlier, US special envoy on climate change John Kerry’s visit to China during July 16-19 brought out the continued rift between the positions of China and the US—the biggest and the second-biggest emitters.
- The developed countries showed no appetite to increase their financial commitment beyond $100 billion per annum.
Emissions by China:
- China accounts for 31% of global emissions. Its relative share in the global basket will grow by 2030, as the emissions of the US and the EU have already peaked and are declining.
- The Chinese emissions will keep growing till 2030, when it peaks. Global temperatures are expected to cross the threshold of 1.5 degrees above pre-industrial levels in 10-11 years.
India’s transition:
- The longer transition period to net zero emissions by 2070 chosen by India will not save her from international pressure.
- G7 has called for all major economies to peak their emissions by 2025. India has not agreed to peaking; its cumulative emissions as well as per capita emissions are much below international levels.
What are India’s options for transition to net zero emissions (NZE) by 2070?
- A report by the Vivekananda International Foundation (VIF) Task Force addressed two questions.
Minimum quantum of demand to reach net zero emissions:
- Mathematical modelling by IIT Bombay found that the quantum of electricity demand will rise to 24,000–30,000 GW by 2070. This seems much higher than the IEA’s estimate of 3,400 GW by 2040.
- IEA has not given any projection of demand in 2070. India’s energy consumption in 2020 was 6,200 TWhr.
Cost-effective way:
- The mathematical modeling also found that the nuclear-high scenario will be cheapest at $11.2 trillion, while the renewable-high scenario will be most expensive, at $15.5 trillion by 2070. This seems contrary to popular perception based on falling renewable tariffs. This view however does not take into account systems costs.
- When the sun is not shining and the wind is not blowing, renewables have to be supplemented with a source of stable, base-load power. This results in additional cost which was estimated by the Forum of Regulators at Rs 2.12 per unit in 2021.
- Added to the tariff of Rs 2 per unit for solar power, this makes renewables, at Rs 4.12 per unit, more expensive than either thermal power (Rs 3.25) or nuclear (Rs 3.47).
Why nuclear?
Cost of transmission:
- Earlier, OECD and MIT studies have pointed out that the cost of achieving a low carbon target increases ‘disproportionately’ without the inclusion of nuclear in the generation mix.
- Renewables require higher capacity build-up due to their low PLF, which pushes up the cost of renewables-high approach. This problem is compounded by higher transmission costs associated with renewables.
- All new ultra mega solar power projects in India have to come up in remote locations like Kutch or Ladakh, which increases transmission costs.
Land utilization:
- The VIF study has also found that the renewable high scenario will require more than 4,12,033 square km of land, while the nuclear high scenario will require 1,83,565 square km of land.
- The total surplus land available in India currently is 2,00,000 square km.
Finances:
- The developed countries’ commitment of $100 billion is paltry. The change in the World Bank equity-to-loan ratio from 20% to 19% would release $5 billion.
- The World Bank has estimated that $2.4 trillion is needed every year for developing countries to address climate change, conflict, and pandemic between 2023 and 2030.
- India, as the G20 chair, has put the figure higher at $4 trillion per annum for energy transition alone.
Way Forward:
- The bulk of the resources for energy transition will have to be internally raised. To avoid adding to the government’s fiscal burden, the financial health of the discoms must be restored.
- The rapid ramp-up of nuclear capacity will require government support since resources at this scale cannot be internally generated by NPCIL. Renewables cannot provide stable, baseload power. Nuclear is the emission-free alternative to coal.
