Israel’s Retaliatory Strikes on Iran Escalate Tensions in West Asia (GS Paper 2, IR)
Why in News?
- On October 26, 2024, Israel launched a series of targeted airstrikes on Iranian military sites, marking a significant escalation in the long-standing hostilities between the two nations.
- This action is viewed as a direct retaliation against an Iranian missile attack that occurred earlier this month, intensifying an already fraught relationship marked by mutual hostility and violence.
Why Did Israel Attack Iran?
Context of the Attacks
The recent escalation follows a series of provocative incidents:
- October 7 Hamas Attack: This attack, attributed to Hamas—an organization that Iran supports—heightened tensions significantly. Iran's backing of militant groups like Hamas and Hezbollah has historically positioned it against Israel.
- Iran's Support for Militants: Iran does not recognize Israel's right to exist and has provided financial and military support to groups opposing Israel, exacerbating regional instability.
- April Incidents: In April, Israel struck the Iranian consulate in Syria, killing 16 people, including senior commanders from the IRGC. This prompted Iran to retaliate with missile and drone strikes on Israeli territory, escalating the cycle of violence.
- Assassinations of Key Figures: The situation further deteriorated with the assassination of high-profile leaders, including Hamas leader Ismail Haniyeh and Hezbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah. These acts of targeted violence by Israel have contributed to a cycle of retaliation.
- Ballistic Missile Attack: Following these tensions, Iran launched a ballistic missile attack on Israel on October 1, which caused minimal damage but intensified the sense of urgency for a military response from Israel.
Israel’s Justification for the Strikes
- Israel’s military actions are justified by its government as necessary for national defense.
- Following the missile attack from Iran, Israeli officials stated that they would respond decisively to protect their sovereignty and deter future threats.
Why Are Israel and Iran Enemies?
Historical Context
The animosity between Israel and Iran has roots that date back to the 1979 Islamic Revolution. Before this event, Iran was one of Israel's allies in the region, but the revolution established an Islamic regime that fundamentally opposed Israel’s existence.
- Ideological Opposition: Iranian leaders have consistently called for Israel’s destruction, referring to it as a "cancerous tumor." Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei's rhetoric reflects this ideological stance, framing Israel as an existential threat.
- Proxy Warfare: The conflict has evolved into a "shadow war," where both nations engage in covert operations against each other without officially declaring war. This includes targeting military assets, cyberattacks, and supporting opposing factions in regional conflicts.
Current Dynamics
Tensions have further escalated due to:
- Iran's Nuclear Ambitions: Israel views Iran’s pursuit of nuclear capabilities as a direct threat to its security. Although Iran claims its nuclear program is for peaceful purposes, Israel remains unconvinced and actively seeks to thwart these ambitions.
- Support for Proxy Forces: Iran's support for groups like Hezbollah in Lebanon and Hamas in Gaza is perceived as a means to encircle and weaken Israel through asymmetric warfare tactics.
Israel–Iran Conflict and Impact on India
Regional Disruptions
- Fears of Protracted Red Sea Disruption: A direct conflict between Israel and Iran poses substantial risks to international shipping, particularly through the Red Sea. The region is crucial for global trade, including that of India, which relies heavily on this route for its economic ties with Europe, the US, and Africa.
- Trade Vulnerability: India’s trade, valued at over $400 billion in FY23, heavily depends on the Suez Canal and Red Sea routes. Disruptions in these shipping lanes could severely impact India's import and export activities.
Increased Risks from Regional Allies
- The involvement of regional allies, such as the Houthi rebels in Yemen, raises the potential for wider conflict and attacks on shipping vessels.
- Such developments could further jeopardize maritime security in the region.
Economic Implications for India
- Impact on Indian Petroleum Exports: India's petroleum exports have faced significant challenges amid rising geopolitical tensions. In August 2024, Indian exports fell by 9%, with a notable 38% drop in petroleum product exports. Key factors include:
- Rising Shipping Costs: Increased costs associated with shipping through a conflict-prone region have made Indian exports less competitive in global markets.
- Alternatives for Importers: With disruptions anticipated, importers are seeking alternative sources of petroleum, negatively affecting the profitability of Indian exporters.
Challenges in European Markets
- Europe, accounting for 21% of India’s petroleum exports, is particularly affected by rising shipping costs.
- A report from Crisil in February 2024 indicated that these additional costs would reduce profit margins for Indian exporters, particularly in sectors reliant on high-volume, low-value products.
Opportunities Amidst Conflict
Despite the regional turmoil, there are signs of resilience in India’s trade dynamics:
- Increased Trade with GCC Countries: India's trade with Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) countries grew by 17.8% from January to July 2024. This growth suggests potential opportunities for Indian businesses amidst the conflict.
- Exports to Iran: Indian exports to Iran increased by 15.2% during the same period, benefitting from regional players like Saudi Arabia and the UAE, who have maintained neutrality in the conflict.
Risks to Strategic Initiatives
India-Middle East-Europe Economic Corridor (IMEC)
The ongoing conflict poses risks to the development of the India-Middle East-Europe Economic Corridor (IMEC), a strategic project aimed at enhancing connectivity between India and Europe through the Gulf region.
- Corridor Components: The IMEC is designed to reduce reliance on the Suez Canal by establishing rail and ship networks connecting India to the Gulf and Europe.
- Uncertainty Over Progress: Escalating hostilities in the region could delay or complicate the project, casting uncertainty over its future viability and effectiveness as a trade route.
Conclusion
- The retaliatory strikes by Israel against Iran underscore the complex and volatile nature of West Asian geopolitics.
- The ramifications of this conflict extend beyond immediate regional tensions, affecting global trade routes and economic relationships, particularly for India.
- As tensions escalate, India must navigate these complexities while seeking to maintain its economic interests and regional stability.
- The situation necessitates careful diplomacy and strategic engagement to mitigate risks and explore opportunities amidst the ongoing conflict.
- The evolving dynamics between Israel and Iran will undoubtedly influence the broader geopolitical landscape in West Asia, impacting global security and economic frameworks in the coming years.
