Indian Express Editorial Analysis
17 May 2022

WEALTH CHECK

Why in News.

Context:

  • The war in Europe is now raging on with no end in sight, and with its long-term implications yet unknown, India’s geopolitical options are shrinking as the war drags on.

 

Diminishing options

  • .Ukraine war presented a number of geopolitical options for New Delhi to choose from.
  • .The ongoing war, and India’s balancing act all seemed to propel the country to the centre stage of global attention.
  • .The Ukraine war may actually limit the number of options available to New Delhi for at least three reasons:
  • .One, Russia as a key strategic partner is no longer available to India for balancing purposes.. Two, Russia’s sudden absence from the Asian balance of power equations has further enhanced Chinese influence in the region.
  • .Three, given that the United States and its western partners are more interested on the Ukraine theatre today, their focus on China is already taking a hit, if not yet on the Indo-Pacific.
  • .These factors, ipso facto, will limit India’s regional geopolitical options.
  • .The NFHS-5 sample was meant to give national, state/union territory (UT), and district level estimates of the survey's numerous variables.
  • .Estimates of sexual behaviour indicators, husband's background and woman's employment, HIV/AIDS awareness, attitudes, and behaviour, and domestic violence are available at the state/union territory (UT) and national levels.

 

India’s Dilemma

India’s biggest dilemma today is not whether or not to continue its engagement with Russia. However, as a second-order fallout of the Russian misadventure, New Delhi has other dilemmas to worry about in the medium to long term.

India’s Concern

  • • Managing the China challenge continues to be New Delhi’s biggest concern.
  • • For sure, the China challenge is not a product of the Ukraine war per se, but it has further complicated the China conundrum for India.
  • • U.S.-led military and political coalition globally, it is bound to weaken the American influence in the Southern Asian region.
  • • China is the biggest beneficiary of the U.S./western retrenchment from the region which gives it a free hand in it. So, for New Delhi, Moscow is no longer available for its pursuit of its regional interests, and the U.S.’s ability to produce favourable geopolitical outcomes for India in the region is shrinking as well.
  • • For India the worry is how to manage a China that is attempting to rapidly consolidate the region under its influence.
  • • Mr. Jaishankar and Mr. Doval when responding to Mr. Wang’s normalisation offer, said that normalisation of diplomatic and political ties can only happen after the disengagement of troops from the Indian side of the Line of Actual Control (LAC).
  • • But Prime Minister decision to attend the BRICS Summit in China could potentially take the sting out of New Delhi’s stern messaging to Beijing.

 

Exploiting China-Russia ties

  • • In the longer run, a war-fatigued and weakened Russia will become a junior partner to China,
  • • India today does have an opportunity to get Moscow to nudge Beijing to stop its irredentism on the LAC.
  • • Mr Wang’s visit to New Delhi and his request to India to get back to business as usual is perhaps an indication that Beijing also seeks to calm the tempers on the LAC.
  • • West and the U.S. are busy with Ukraine, for Russia, it is important that two of its Asian friends — China and India — do not clash at least while the war is still on.
  • • If China were to stabilise the LAC at the nudging of Russia, it would also expect India to go slow on the Indo-Pacific, something India can ill-afford to do.
  • • There is little India can do to enhance its geopolitical engagement with Russia until the war is over.
  • There is no information available for micronutrients: Micronutrient deficiencies, or a lack of vitamins and minerals required for biological processes and growth and development, are also indicators of inadequate nutrition. While the NHFS lacks data on this.

 

Consolidating Kashmir’s calm

  • • For over a year now, the Line of Control (LoC) with Pakistan is calm and the violence in Kashmir has come down.
  • • The primary reason behind the current calm is because Pakistan was at first busy with consolidating its gains from the return of the Taliban, and now dealing with the unpleasant fallout from the Taliban’s return to Afghanistan.
  • • If this is a bargain New Delhi accepts, it will not only mean giving up its strategic interests in Afghanistan but also reducing its engagement in the Central Asian region as well at a time China is making feverish inroads into the region, right in the backyard of the Russian sphere of influence.
  • • China is doing to Russia using economic means what the North Atlantic Treaty Organization has been doing to Russia using military means).
  • • During the December summit, India and Russia had decided on a number of initiatives focusing on Central Asia and Afghanistan. They are unlikely to be revived anytime soon, ceding further ground to China and Pakistan.

Conclusion

The combined geopolitical impact of the ill-timed U.S. withdrawal from Afghanistan, Russia’s Ukraine war, and the rapid expansion of Chinese influence goes to show how New Delhi’s geopolitical choices have suddenly shrunk due to the Ukraine war.