Where do China-Taiwan relations stand? (GS Paper 2, International Relation)
Why in news?
- Recently, Taiwan concluded its democratic elections. Lai Ching-te of the Democratic Progressive Party (DPP), who was the Vice President under Tsai Ing-wen, whom China has called the “troublemaker”, is the newly elected President of Taiwan.
- This is a third term for the DPP, with the win being perceived as a major blow to China. However, within days of the results, Nauru, a small island nation, has announced that it is shifting its relations from Taiwan to China.
What brought on the shift?
- A number of countries have shifted their diplomatic relations from Taiwan to China during the previous Taiwan President, Tsai Ing-wen’s term in office.
- China has followed a pattern of luring smaller nations with the promise of financial investment and infrastructure development. Since Ms. Tsai and DPP came to power in 2016, the diplomatic space for Taiwan has consistently reduced.
- Today, just 11 countries recognise Taiwan while in 2016, this number stood at 22. The DPP is perceived as a pro-independence party and thus the pressure from China and the pace at which Taiwan has been losing allies is increasing. This is also because Taiwan is unable to match China’s deep pockets.
What is status of China-Taiwan ties?
- One of the main reasons for China’s assertiveness is the refusal of Ms. Tsai to accept the ‘1992 consensus’. The 1992 consensus acknowledges that there is ‘one China’. It was agreed upon between the Kuomintang (KMT, pro status-quo party) and the Communist Party of China (CPC). However, Ms. Tsai has publicly said that this consensus goes against the ‘Taiwanese consensus’.
- There has also been a rise in ‘Taiwanisation’, where the younger generation of Taiwan do not feel any historical affinity with China.
- This generation recognises itself as Taiwanese and have grown up in a democratic political environment and do not feel any bond with the historical narratives of a united China. All these developments have intensified aggressiveness towards Taiwan under Chinese President Xi Jinping.
- Rejuvenation of the Chinese nation and reunification of Taiwan are two very prominent and essential goals for Mr. Xi. China had consistently made comments and indicated its displeasure of the DPP, given its pro-independence stance.
- In his New Year’s address, Mr. Xi had remarked that “reunification with Taiwan is inevitable” and Taiwan is a “sacred territory”. However, DPP’s electoral victory is a clear indication that the Taiwanese people are not in a hurry for reunification.
What about democracy in Taiwan?
- Taiwan conducted its first democratic elections in 1996. The elections happened under the shadow of Chinese ire with missiles being fired across the Taiwan Straits. Since then, the democracy has only strengthened and regularised.
- China had been aggressive during the 2020 elections too, underscoring its discontent towards Ms. Tsai. Beijing has been uncomfortable with Taiwanese democracy, as it considers the island a renegade province.
- The fact that Taiwan has a functioning democracy strengthens the idea of a separate Taiwanese political identity which is in complete contrast to the one-party system in China. It also challenges the notion that the CPC is the only political option for the Chinese people.
What’s next?
- Even though it is clear that Taiwan’s future path under Mr. Lai and DPP’s tenure is going to be tougher, it is a major win for Taiwan’s democratic future. The election results will be clearly regarded as a challenge to China’s political aspirations of reunification.
- Though Mr. Xi has denied any set timeline for ultimate reunification, the pressure on Taiwan is only going to increase.
- When one juxtaposes this with the intensifying nationalisms on both sides of the straits, the situation will be difficult and Mr. Lai will have to be adept and manoeuvre these various diplomatic challenges.
